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Can Trump Really Win in 2024?

If Democrats can pad their popular vote tally by 14 million mail-in votes — about 9 percent

— Trump has little chance of reproducing Grover Cleveland’s election to nonconsecutive presidential terms. It’s not impossible, however. It can be done if Trump recaptures Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan by double-digit percentages of the popular vote in each state. He must reproduce the 2022 victory of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or at least that of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. Trump can’t win a close election in 2024.

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