The 2016 race went well past South Carolina. But one key lesson from 2016 is that each
candidate who stayed in the race won something. The situation is not quite the same today. Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent, and there is no Kasich nuisance candidacy. But Nikki Haley, should she lose South Carolina, can say on election night: Hey, it’s only Feb. 24. No, I haven’t won anything, and I lost my home state, but I still might win somewhere, so there’s no reason the race can’t go on for a while... The race goes on — until it doesn’t.
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